Producers are faced with new challenges as consumers adapt to eating more meals at home in light of the COVID-19 crisis. Will we return to “normal” when the outbreak subsides, or will new habits create a permanent shift in how we eat? Ken Zuckerberg, lead analyst and senior economist in CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division, explains how the pandemic has already affected the food sector and what economic and market trends may emerge.

This episode is part of a special AgFuture series on the impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain. Join us to hear how those on the frontlines of the global pandemic are working to overcome adversity and feed the world.

Hosted by Michelle Michael

As lead video producer at Alltech, Michelle travels the globe for the company’s award-winning Planet of Plenty™ documentary series. Michelle spent a decade as a video producer/reporter in Germany, reporting from military hotspots at the height of the war on terrorism. The National Press Photographer's Association (NPPA) has twice recognized Michelle as their solo video journalist of the year.

Co-produced by Brandon Whitworth

As the senior media production specialist at Alltech, Brandon co-produces the company’s award-winning Planet of Plenty™ documentary series. Brandon is a two-time Emmy Award winning television news photojournalist and three-time nominee. He has received several regional awards from the National Press Photographers Association for excellence in visual storytelling.

The following is an edited transcript of Michelle Michael’s interview with Ken Zuckerberg. Click below to hear the full audio.

Michelle:       Hello! I'm Michelle Michael. In this special series of AgFuture, we're talking with those working along the food supply chain about the impact of COVID-19. My guest today is Ken Zuckerberg. Ken is the lead analyst and senior economist in CoBank's Knowledge Exchange division, where he focuses on grains, oilseeds, farm supply and biofuel. That translates to me that, well, you're a numbers guy — is that right, Ken?

Ken:                Correct, although not simply just a numbers guy. The interesting part of the job is going through the numbers and then triangulating with market information to understand, really, where we are, where we're going and what the marketplace may be missing.

Michelle:       So, in your role, you look at data, you look at patterns, you look at trends and economic activity, and you use those predictions to improve business decisions in agriculture. Also, just some background on CoBank: CoBank is one of the largest private providers of credit to the U.S. rural economy. The company is located in Colorado and delivers loans, leases and other financial services to agribusinesses in all 50 states. Is that right, Ken?

Ken:                Generally, that's spot on. We operate within the Farm Credit System, which, as you know, is the largest lender to agriculture in rural America and the United States.

Michelle:       Ken, COVID-19's global spread may continue to impact supply chains and the availability of certain crops, which is also potentially affecting commodity prices and farmers’ planning decisions. How do you look at the risk of COVID-19 from a very high level?

Ken:                Thank you for asking that, to begin with. Strictly speaking, there are five bullet categories of risk facing every economic sector in every region of the world. These categories can be thought of as economic risk, environmental risk, geopolitical risk, societal risk and technological risk. Coronavirus falls strictly under the societal risk bucket, given that it's an infectious disease. However, the dynamics of treating it and what we've seen in terms of the resulting job losses and the massive contraction in economic activity — that actually puts coronavirus into two buckets: both the economic and the societal. It lies at the intersection of those two, and there are sort of broad ramifications for not delaying this quickly. The longer it goes on, the more uncertainty there is. The more uncertainty, the greater the economic damage. Then, because of those, if that scenario unfolds, the longer and harder it is to sort of get back to what people hope to be, back to normal.

Michelle:       Ken, how does COVID-19 impact the food and agriculture sector?

Ken:                Let me start with the labor and supply chains. We've gotten a lot of questions about both recently, and I think it's worth addressing, to begin with. Specialty crops are labor-intensive, and places like California (are) often dependent on noncitizens working in the U.S. either during the season or on a temporary basis — hence, closing borders and limiting temporary work passes to contain the virus spread obviously would be negative. Partially offsetting this, people are losing their jobs in other sectors, such as the restaurant and hospitality industries, and those (people) could theoretically come to work in agriculture, although that remains to be seen.

                        Another issue, of course, is employees that potentially get sick that work in food processing plants, grocery stores and restaurant takeout or delivery. These are some of the issues, from a labor standpoint, that we're monitoring closely. On supply chains, it's a bit of a mixed bag for now, but we're watching closely to see if things change in the future. In a recent report about the spring 2020 planting season, I argue that ag retailers in the U.S. have adequate supplies of crop inputs to deliver to customers this season. So, from a farm input supply chain perspective, we're not so concerned. We don't think it's a near-term risk. It is clear, though, that, given the amount of imported fertilizers, chemicals and feed ingredients made in China and brought to the U.S., the longer this goes on, the bigger that risk could be down the line, but we view that as a forward risk rather than a current one.

                        A more concerning matter, with respect to supply chains in the U.S., is truck drivers and truckers and transporters dealing with the splintered delivery networks and an upsurge in retail demand as consumers start buying more food at grocery stores and away from restaurants. The surge in that area is sort of causing bottlenecks in other delivery channels. Again, we are monitoring this for agriculture, production ag. We don't see too fat of a risk in the near term, but the situation is very dynamic.

Michelle:       Of course, facing uncertainty in a volatile industry is nothing novel at all for the American agriculture industry. Farmers are very hearty. They're full of perseverance and innovative thinking. Will farmers and producers rise to the occasion, or will this time be different? What are the critical factors at play today versus what you expected as you headed into 2020?

Ken:                I agree with you about your assertion of the American farmer. He and she do not go down easily. I have confidence that, generally speaking, production agriculture will rise to the occasion. However, there are a few critical factors and variables that the industry has to deal with that, quite candidly, they probably haven't dealt with ever before, even during the Great Depression. The continued economic uncertainty and volatility in markets, shipping network supply chains overseas and the shocks to demand — these are going to be negative issues for agriculture exports in the very near term.

                        Another pressure is, given the high levels of global financial market (pressure) on people, the more this goes on, the more that foreign investors tend to drive into U.S. dollar-denominated assets, meaning the dollar. The stronger the dollar, the more expensive our products are for overseas buyers, and, obviously, that would be a negative. The greater strength in the dollar, the more pressure on how competitive ag exports are relative to other major production regions.

Michelle:       One of the challenges crop producers were facing before this pandemic was global trade wars that were occurring, particularly with China. What has changed since COVID-19?

Ken:                In one sense, the entire world has changed with COVID-19. Obviously, the critical questions that we're all asking ourselves are “Can things return to normal — or, alternatively, a new normal?” and “What will domestic and export demand look like for ag products when we get there?” Right now, it's too early to make a broad call on any of that. That being said, U.S. agriculture has a reputation for very high quality. Recently, we've seen an uptick in demand for certain crops, such as wheat. Here in the U.S., we have adequate stocks, high-quality and attractive prices. China has been a buyer there, and they've also been buying soybeans and pork. Last week, in fact, was a record for U.S. pork exports to China.

                        The world has changed. There have been demand shocks, market shocks, economic shocks, since both COVID-19 and the Saudi Arabia-Russia oil price war has broken out. However, we do see agriculture as a go-to sector. As people commonly say, you'll always have to eat. So, it does tend to be resilient, even when the other parts of the economy are in trouble.

Michelle:       Farmers are, of course, used to sacrifice. But when it comes to financial stability, what exactly are farmers facing today in the midst of COVID-19?

Ken:                I think it's important to step back a minute and discuss what was the situation prior to the current crisis. Before that, crop farming had already entered the seventh or eighth year of a difficult pricing cycle. When we combined both crop and livestock farming together, the industry revenues actually had been flat with the 2011 level. However, production expenses continue to rise. The industry, in total, has been operating under profit pressure.

                        Another negative is that work in capital has been declining while debt has been increasing to record levels. Debt-to-net-cash income is also very high for the industry on a consolidated basis. While reported numbers show that net farming income rose in 2019, it did so only because of substantial government payments. Backing that out, income was actually down.

                        The bottom line is that farming, in general, has been under some pressure, and there is a massive divide between profitable and unprofitable farmers. The weaker ones, unfortunately, will have limited flexibility to play through the current crisis, and they ultimately may be forced to sell, exit or consolidate operations. We saw an uptick in financial restructurings for U.S. farms in 2019. Unfortunately, we think this could continue in 2020.

Michelle:       Are farmers even able to prepare for something like that? This is unprecedented, of course.

Ken:                COVID-19 is unique in that, regardless of income level, industry expertise or desire, very few businesspeople in general were adequately prepared for this. I think the characteristics that allow a U.S. farmer to manage through here come down to A) are you a low-cost operator? Do you have command of the variable inputs that are required to produce your crop? And/or B) are you overextended? So, the more financially conservative a farmer is, the greater he or she has the ability to operate beyond the current season.

Michelle:       Let's talk about trends for a moment, since that's definitely your expertise. What short-term trends are we going to see in agriculture as related to COVID-19?

Ken:                At the risk of observing the obvious, how consumers are purchasing food and what they are buying has clearly changed since the onslaught of COVID-19. We obviously first saw bulk purchases of Clorox products, hand sanitizers, toilet paper and canned goods. Now, a shift is happening that's more substantial — away from sit-down restaurants, many of which are closed in areas that have shelter-in-place restrictions, and the shift has gone towards buying food from supermarkets and other food retailers, including mail-order, home delivery and food delivery. Those are some of the short-term trends and observations we've seen that are likely to continue as long as this crisis is underway.

Michelle:       Can we, in any way, predict the longer-term effects from this pandemic?

Ken:                It's very difficult. What I think is fascinating is that, to the extent one observed a few years ago that some of the higher-growth categories in food were purchases of food either through fast-casual or specialty restaurants, that was in some ways cannibalizing sales at the supermarket. Now, the supermarket is the go-to place, with lines out the door and, oftentimes, limits of people going in. I think purchases of food for home consumption will probably continue at a greater level than had been (seen) during previous shocks, and part of the issue there is if people are genuinely concerned about being around other people that may get them sick, I think there's a likelihood that at least this dynamic will continue for a while.

                        Predicting long-term trends is inherently complicated. What I know I fundamentally feel is that this, too, will eventually pass. I think the business in the industrial case of food service out of the home will continue. But getting back to the same level of consumption out of the house? It's hard to determine when that's going to take place.

Michelle:       Of course, many people are under stay-at-home orders. Social distancing has pretty much everybody stuck inside their own home at a time when gasoline prices are way down. What is the impact of the recent drop in gasoline prices on agricultural production?

Ken:                There are two sides to that coin. The first one is that you're correct in that fuel and energy are important inputs — and costly ones — in agricultural production. The drop in gas prices, all else being equal, is very positive operationally. However, the demand shock and the price decline in gasoline prices has carried over to the ethanol industry to the point where the dynamics of operating an ethanol plant with margins under pressure because of the current price and demand dynamics is extraordinary. Unfortunately, the recent drop in gasoline prices is a mixed bag, and the focus now is on what the ethanol industry can and will be able to do to reposition itself to survive this downturn.

Michelle:       It's hard to think about opportunity in the middle of a crisis, but if that's at all possible, what opportunities might you see coming from this?

Ken:                I think there are opportunities. Crisis and chaos always give innovative people an opportunity to capture and deliver value. This time will be no different. Here are a few ideas about potential opportunities. Unexpectedly, wheat is seeing a surge in demand with the hoarding, if you will, of shelf-stable food at the supermarket. While this may only be temporary, it's interesting. Wheat is seeing a little bit of opportunity.

                        Labor shortages could help accelerate the adoption of farm robots to handle spraying and picking fruit crops. We have a number of companies that are already operating in that space, and that could be an interesting place to be going forward. Increased demand for food and grocery deliveries may also be the saving grace for certain meal kit and online food platform delivery companies. Finally, a renaissance in home-prepared meals and gourmet cooking might lead to increased buying of fancy pots, pans and kitchen accessories. In some ways, we see dollars shifting to the Krogers of the world, as well as the Amazons of the world, as well as some of the Blue Aprons and others. But who knows? Maybe the fancy home-houseware companies could also see a pickup here during or post-crisis.

Michelle:       Ken, how do you envision market segments? What I mean is restaurants are shutting down, but grocery stores are staying open. How do you envision market segments dictating supply chain moving forward?

Ken:                Much as we had discussed before, it's very hard to know whether this will be a temporary bull market in grocery stores relative to restaurants — how long that will last, will it be permanent, or there will be a shift. It's very hard to estimate that. That being said, I think there will undoubtedly be either stresses or disruptions related to packaging, shipping and delivery but also the product mix. For example, people that pay $50 for a New York strip steak in a restaurant may or may not be willing to pay a premium at the supermarket. I'm actually not sure; I think the likelihood is that they won't. There are other product categories that also face similar dynamics. With more people eating at home, there's a greater need for a variety of consumer staple foods. To the extent that that will be in demand, that will ultimately shift priorities both in production and distribution.

Michelle:       American farmers provide a commodity that consumers will always need. It's important to remember that the bottleneck in supply and demand is really only a temporary obstacle as health officials everywhere focus on containing the coronavirus outbreak. At the end of the day, Ken, what is your biggest concern at this time?

Ken:                My biggest concern is that we see globally interconnected markets that are, at the end of the day, very sensitive to competence. The good news about food and ag production is that this industry can be, oftentimes, countercyclical. When the broad economy is under pressure, food and agriculture can be a steady staple. As we said before, we have to eat. The risk is that the longer we go through a period where there's uncertainty, the greater the structural changes are in demand, and how to rectify that. The bigger risk for me is time. The longer this COVID-19 crisis goes out, the longer the economic uncertainty.

Michelle:       Ken Zuckerberg, senior economist from CoBank, thank you so much for joining us today.

Ken:                Wonderful to be with you.

Michelle:       For additional resources on COVID-19, visit Alltech.com.

Click here for additional COVID-19 resources.

It’s no secret that our farmers, ranchers and producers have particularly demanding jobs, which can be physically and mentally exhausting. Lesley Kelly is the farmer behind the popular blog, “High Heels and Canola Fields,” and a passionate advocate for supporting mental health within the agriculture industry. She joins us to discuss the emotional toll of farming, particularly during this time of unprecedented uncertainty, and shares the small steps that anyone can take toward improving their mental well-being.

The following is an edited transcript of Michelle Michael’s interview with Lesley Kelly. Click below to hear the full audio.

Michelle:       Hello! I'm Michelle Michael. In this special series of AgFuture, we're talking with those working along the food supply chain about the impact of COVID-19. My guest today is Lesley Kelly. Lesley, you're the head and the heart behind the blog called High Heels and Canola Fields. You're a wife, you're a mother and a farmer from Saskatchewan, and we want to talk to you today about one of your many passions: mental health. Lesley, you believe the success of any farm operation hinges on the well-being of the farmer, and you personally make mental health a priority, and you don’t shy away from talking about mental health. Tell us about yourself and your family, and how did you begin down this path?

Lesley:           Yeah. Well, thank you, first and foremost, for having me. Mental health is a topic that is near and dear to my heart, and what I've been trying to do over the last few years is reduce that stigma and break that silence that so many of us in agriculture are living in. Ten years ago, if you would've said I would become a mental health advocate, it wasn't even on my radar, but through struggles within my family, seeing my friends go through struggles, our fellow farmers, it really became a priority — especially a couple of years ago, after my husband and I did a live video sharing our mental health journey. I shared that I had postpartum depression after our second child was born, and my husband, a farmer, is living with anxiety mainly attributed to farm stress. So, we did this live video sharing what we had done together as a team and individually to really help overcome those challenges, and the reception we got afterwards was nothing that we've had or could have ever anticipated. That, really then, was the catalyst for myself and three other individuals in Saskatchewan for starting a not-for-profit called Do More Agriculture that is championing the mental well-being of our producers.

Michelle:       Before you started down this path of making mental health a priority, were you aware that there was so much of a need for this?

Lesley:           No. It wasn't until we did the video, because we kept thinking — my husband, Matt, and I kept thinking, "Are we alone in this?" After hearing from a few friends about their struggles, we thought, “There must be more of us out there.” We aired the video, and afterwards — after we pressed "stop" — the text messages, the phone calls, the direct messages, the social media, it blew up. It wasn't anything that we ever thought (would happen), and 99% of it was positive. People were looking for hope, and people were looking for that extra bit of encouragement to raise their hand and say, "You know what? I am going through something" or "I have gone through something and I didn’t know where to go or who to talk to or what to say." That really made us look at mental health as not just us but, really, an industry that needed more help and support and resources.

Michelle:       Absolutely. You have quite a following on your blog and on your social media sites, and you seem so passionate about mental health. You mentioned previously, you talked about the organization that you co-founded, Do More Agriculture Foundation. Can you talk about the specific goals of that foundation?

Lesley:           We are trying to do three things. The first one is to increase awareness about mental health. Our industry — agriculture — we haven't really talked about mental health in the past, so there is a lot of unknown. We're trying to bring awareness to agriculture as to what mental health is and what it takes for our farmers to be mentally well. The second is to create community. Our landscape in agriculture is changing. More people are moving to the cities. Our small towns are decreasing in size. It really takes a community to help our farmers around us, so we're trying to change that and build community, whether it's online or at events, and create a hub of resources, that community of health, so farmers know where to go if they are having a hard time. The third is research. We're trying to help those in research to understand what farmers need when it comes to support and knowing more about mental health in agriculture.

Michelle:       I wonder if mental health is more of an issue in agriculture — or is it around the world, globally, in all professions, and it's just now being talked about in agriculture?

Lesley:           Yeah. When it comes to mental health in agriculture, there are so many unknowns. It has been a recent discussion over the past couple of years that has come more to light. I have been part of campaigns where farming and agriculture was included, and it is a societal concern, but that societal concern — moving that needle, having a positive discussion — has then transcended into agriculture to help start those conversations. I do believe it is a worldwide concern, and I hope that, in agriculture, we can continue the positive momentum that we've had the last couple of years of starting a conversation and keeping it going.

Michelle:       It's no secret that farmers and ranchers have very demanding jobs. You know that firsthand. At times like these, amidst COVID-19 — it's unprecedented, but at times like these, there's economic uncertainty. There's vulnerability, still, to weather. There's isolation, which is obviously worse on someone who already suffers from something like anxiety or depression. What words of encouragement or advice do you have for fellow producers out there during this crisis?

Lesley:           Farming is an amazing lifestyle. It's an amazing industry to be in. Our roots are established in strength and perseverance, but sometimes, that could be a weakness, where you put your head down and work through it, and sometimes, that might not be the best. So, what we're trying to encourage in those around us — there are three main things, and that's to talk, ask and listen. By doing these three small things, you could really make a big impact on yourself and those around you. When we say “talk,” we want people to talk more about mental health. Talk to your family, your friends, your fellow farmers. Check in on them and talk about mental health. We don’t want these conversations to be hushed, because we know that if it just takes one person to raise their hand and say, "Hey, I need help," that could be a catalyst for encouraging others to get help that they need, too.

                        The second is to ask, and that really means to check in on people around you. Ask how they are doing. Also, check in and ask yourself how you are feeling. The third is to listen. I know that by listening, you don’t have to be an expert when it comes to mental health, but listening to someone — taking all of their struggles and pouring them out, taking the weight of the world off of their shoulders — can be a life-saving difference. It could make a life-saving impact. Also, listen to yourself and ask how you can help yourself through a really, really hard time.

Michelle:       Do you think farmers feel additional pressure at this time to keep the food supply chain moving, or is this business as usual for farmers?

Lesley:           Well, I'm not too sure about the pressure to keep it going as a farmer. I know, with us, seeding is right around the corner, and our goal is to keep putting that crop in every year. We're facing some worry and anxiety around will we have enough crop input supply, or what will that do to transportation if our plant or tractor break down? Will there be parts available? I can see or I've heard from other parts of the supply chain how they have more pressure. Transportation, frontline staff at grocery stores — that's where, probably, right now, is the most pressure.

Michelle:       I love what's happening in the background here, because it shows everyone is trying to maintain a sense of normalcy when nothing in the world feels normal right now. Is that your children at the background?

Lesley:           Yes. They are hungry, I believe.

Michelle:       Maybe you can explain to us how you're managing, because we talked about how, when you have something like anxiety or depression, you already feel isolated, and the social distancing might make it worse. How can somebody combat those feelings of isolation during this time? What advice do you have for them on how to maintain relationships and positivity when they feel so isolated and, quite frankly, are distanced from their loved ones in some ways?

Lesley:           Yeah. Right now, I can see for myself, being so extroverted, that I'm having a hard time being away from my family and friends. I think the one thing, once COVID is past us, on the top of my list is hugging my mom and my dad, who I haven't been able to see.

                        What I would encourage others who are having a hard time and need that connection with people is to keep continuing to reach out. What anxiety and depression do to us is they make us go into a box. They make us become distant, but continue to put that step forward. Every day, for me, it's making a goal that I'm going to check in on this person. I'm going to send a text, and not just a text saying, "Hey, how are you doing?" but even further, sharing what that person means to you because you haven't been able to see them in such a long time. Then, on the flipside is if you know in the past of someone who has had mental health challenges, who is going through a mental illness, for you to reach out to them, to have that text, send that text, to do that virtual call, because those can make a world of difference.

                        What my husband and I are doing right now inside of our home is we're journaling. We're doing art classes. We're trying to do as many family things to bring that connectedness home, and then the one thing that really helps my husband and I is to get outside, get that fresh air, feel that sun, do things, check off things on the to-do list that really make that anxiety lessen as we're coming into the seeding and planting season.

Michelle:       Figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that, at least here in America, those who work in agriculture have some of the highest suicide rates of any professional group. Is there a similar concern or a problem where you are?

Lesley:           Yeah. We actually, in Canada, we don’t have any stats on farmer suicides, but yeah, we've looked to our friends in the States who have that research, and it is very — that's a hard number to hear, so my goal, by me talking about mental health, being an advocate, co-founding Do More, is to ultimately change those numbers.

Michelle:       Farmers, of course, are often in rural areas with very limited access, in some cases, to mental healthcare. How does this compound an already escalating problem?

Lesley:           Yeah. There are so many things that, as farmers, we face that are outside of our control, whether (it’s the) economy, like what you've mentioned, but then, it's (also) our access to support. During harvest or calving, as a farmer, it's very, very hard just to pick up and leave and drive four to five hours into the city to get that support — and then, sometimes, that support might not understand farming. They might not understand the world of agriculture and that it's not a nine-to-five job, that there are so many layers and so many things that are happening on the farm. So, at Do More Ag, what we're trying to do is bring that support — to know what support is out there and then bring that support to agriculture, so those that are servicing us understand our world and we can help our farmers.

Michelle:       What are some of those resources that are out there for farmers? Where can they find help dealing with this additional stress and anxiety that everyone is feeling right now?

Lesley:           Well, for us up in Canada, first and foremost, they can go to our website at domore.ag, where we have a list of resources that are set out provincially, but those who are in the States, they can look to their extensions. There are so many resources right now that are online, especially during COVID, that you can access on your computer or you can text support or you can call someone, whether that could be a mental health service hotline or your local hospital.

Michelle:       Are there any certain signs, certain telltale symptoms, that farmers should be aware of and acknowledge for themselves so that they know they're headed down a dangerous path?

Lesley:           Yeah. When it comes to mental health, it might look different for everyone, but my biggest advice when I'm chatting with others about those signs and those symptoms is that we all know our normals and those normals of people around us. If their acting or if their behaviors or feelings or thoughts are outside of that typical normal, that's where that could be a red flag to start to have those discussions about mental health. For my husband, his farm stress — what we saw him go through is he stopped eating. He stopped sleeping. One of the biggest physical signs was he started to have panic attacks where he couldn't breathe, excessive sweating, just racing thoughts of worry and anxiety, so that made us really realize that it's something — it wasn't just a little bit of worry and then work through it.

                        For me, having postpartum, I became quite emotional. It was hard for me to call a friend. I really became socially distant, isolated. The other part with Matt, what I saw — and this could be (common) with those on the farm — is he had a really hard time making just day-to-day decisions. Just small decisions, they really stopped him in his track. That was when we saw each other outside of our normals and said, "Hey, I think that something is going on that's bigger than what we first anticipated."

Michelle:       Yeah. That goes right along with my next question. When farmers ignore mental health, just like chronic pain, poor mental health can make it difficult to manage everyday stressors in farmers' lives. How were you personally impacted, or what is the worry beyond just what you had to do on the farm?

Lesley:           Yeah. Mental health is not something that just affects the individual person. I had personal experience that, when someone is suffering from a mental health challenge or distress or an illness, it really impacts the whole family. It can impact the farming operation. You really need that support system, that rally of people, your cheerleaders around you, to help you get through it, because sometimes, for Matt, he didn’t think anything was wrong. It was something that was his normal for so long, so it really took us to champion and help him through that really hard time, but it can impact day-to-day operations. It can impact your sales. It can impact getting the crop in the ground. It can impact during calving season. It's not just an impact of your mental health. Mental health can impact everything in your life if it's not addressed or if you don’t have the proper mental health techniques to get you through those hard times.

Michelle:       Right now, especially, there seems to be a renewed sense of appreciation for farmers. People are showing appreciation more than ever before. Store shelves are stocked with milk and eggs and everything, for that matter. I've talked to farmers and producers firsthand who are hearing for the first time ever, "Thank you." Does that help with mental health from an agricultural perspective?

Lesley:           I don’t know, as farmers, if we do look for that recognition. I know, for my husband and I, it's the lifestyle and showing our kids a new experience or life lessons that come from the farm, but when it comes to consumers that are in a different world, if they're in the cities and something that's so far removed from agriculture or farming, when they see how we do as farmers — the 2% of us (who) impact so many things, whether it's the economy, getting food on the table — that "thank you" could really mean a world of difference to someone who is going through a really hard time.

Michelle:       From the consumer end of things, is there anything that we can do to bolster the feelings of love and appreciation toward our farmers and our food producers around the world, especially when they're working so hard to feed us during this pandemic?

Lesley:           Oh, that's a big question. For me, it would be to continue supporting your farmers. Continue buying that food. You know what? What makes me smile at the end of the day is just connecting with people now, through social distancing or physical distancing. It's getting to understand other people's world, and if I have the opportunity to connect with someone who lives in the city and hear those words of support and love and that kindness that the world needs right now, that, to me, really brings a smile to my face.

Michelle:       What do you think might change in regards to mental health after this crisis is over? How will it change us?

Lesley:           I'm being quite optimistic. I'm looking at it as, now, because of our world going through something that is so unforeseen, mental health is a priority. People will be looking at mental health as one of the top things that they need to make a priority — (and) make themselves a priority. I'm also looking forward to seeing the changes of the mental health support. We all love to go into or would like to have that face-to-face contact with someone, but as farmers, we might not have that luxury, so I'm seeing and hope to see even more support, whether it's texting, calling or those virtual conferences of bringing support to people who might not be able to get that face-to-face connection.

Michelle:       Lesley Kelly is our guest today. Her goal is quite simple: to make the agriculture industry stronger and, quite simply, to break down the culture of toughness encouraged among farmers so that they, too, can discuss mental health. Lesley, thank you so much for joining us today.

Lesley:           Thank you for having me.

Michelle:       For additional resources on COVID-19, visit Alltech.com.

Click here for additional COVID-19 resources.

This episode is part of a special AgFuture series on the impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain. Join us to hear how those on the frontlines of the global pandemic are working to overcome adversity and feed the world.

Hosted by Michelle Michael

As lead video producer at Alltech, Michelle travels the globe for the company’s award-winning Planet of PlentyTM documentary series. Michelle spent a decade as a video producer/reporter in Germany, reporting from military hotspots at the height of the war on terrorism. The National Press Photographer's Association (NPPA) has twice recognized Michelle as their solo video journalist of the year.

Co-produced by Brandon Whitworth

As the senior media production specialist at Alltech, Brandon co-produces the company’s award-winning Planet of Plenty TM documentary series. Brandon is a two-time Emmy Award winning television news photojournalist and three-time nominee. He has received several regional awards from the National Press Photographers Association for excellence in visual storytelling.

As consumers rush to stock up on staples, orange juice has made its way to the top of the shopping list. How will the coronavirus crisis impact an industry that has been pummeled by hurricanes and citrus greening? Andrew Meadows, director of Citrus Mutual in Lakeland, Florida, shares his insights on how shifting consumer demands will impact the market now and in the future.

This episode is part of a special AgFuture series on the impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain. Join us to hear how those on the frontlines of the global pandemic are working to overcome adversity and feed the world.

Hosted by Michelle Michael

As lead video producer at Alltech, Michelle travels the globe for the company’s award-winning Planet of Plenty™ documentary series. Michelle spent a decade as a video producer/reporter in Germany, reporting from military hotspots at the height of the war on terrorism. The National Press Photographer's Association (NPPA) has twice recognized Michelle as their solo video journalist of the year. 

Co-produced by Brandon Whitworth

As the senior media production specialist at Alltech, Brandon co-produces the company’s award-winning Planet of Plenty ™ documentary series. Brandon is a two-time Emmy Award winning television news photojournalist and three-time nominee. He has received several regional awards from the National Press Photographers Association for excellence in visual storytelling.

The following is an edited transcript of Michelle Michael's interview with Andrew Meadows. Click below to hear the full audio.

Michelle:       Hello! I'm Michelle Michael. In this special series of AgFuture, we're talking with those working along the food supply chain about the impact of COVID-19. My guest today is Andrew Meadows, director of Citrus Mutual, based out of Lakeland, Florida. Citrus Mutual is a nonprofit trade association that acts as an advocate for citrus growers, particularly when it comes to economic matters. Andrew, thank you so much for joining us today.

Andrew:         Thank you very much for having me.

Michelle:       Hope you and your family are safe right now in the midst of this pandemic. It's a scary time. We're all learning to navigate this new norm together, and it's the same throughout agriculture. I'm hearing that orange juice is suddenly a hot commodity. In fact, I've heard there's been a significant jump in sales as the demand for vitamin C goes up. Do you have numbers that confirm that?

Andrew:         Yes, we measure orange juice sales. Our industry here in Florida is (that) 95% of our product, our oranges, go into juice. The remaining 5% is the fresh table market. But we, as an industry, measure our sales in four-week increments. We work through Nielsen Incorporated, which is a well-known consumer data company. Actually, the last four-week period was March 14, and it showed an increase at retail of 10%. Although this situation is a crisis, and I hope everybody out there is staying safe and doing what the CDC recommends, it is heartening to us, as an industry and our growers, that people still see orange juice as a significant source of vitamin C, which, of course, can help boost and support a healthy immune system. We'll get numbers in mid-April for the next four-week period, and we expect those to be up as well. Anecdotally, we're hearing from our processors that sales are continuing to be up. Although the country is grappling with this crisis, the silver lining, I guess, for our growers is that people are looking to orange juice for vitamin C.

Michelle:       Of course, we have to say that there's no evidence that vitamin C is effective against coronavirus, but people certainly are looking to increase their vitamin intake. That's a very real thing. Can you describe what you're seeing in the public there? Do you see orange juice flying off of store shelves, just like you see toilet paper disappearing?

Andrew:         Well, I don't think we've gotten as much publicity as the toilet paper issue, or bottled water or bread, those sorts of staple items. But anecdotally, I always keep an eye on the frozen section when I go to the grocery store, and there have been some empty shelves where, normally, they front their inventory. So, I've seen it. The numbers back it up. Again, as you mentioned, there's not a direct effect on coronavirus itself, but certainly, vitamin C supports a healthy immune system, and that's what people are looking for now. Traditionally, our sales do spike during the cold and flu months, November to February. We heavy-up our advertising and marketing during that period, historically, but of course, with people falling sick now to this new disease, that's only supported more interest in orange juice and vitamin C.

Michelle:       Andrew, what about packing lines? Can the pack houses keep up with this sudden increase in demand? Or is the demand outpacing the current supply? And should consumers be worried that orange juice and oranges are going to disappear from store shelves?

Andrew:         I don't think it's to that point. We have seven major processing plants here in Florida. They are all working extremely hard, is what I'm being told. I don't think we're to the point where our supply chain can't meet the demand that's out there. But, certainly, they are working hard, and we're getting our late-season Valencias to the processing plants as fast as we can at this point.

Michelle:       What about moving products once they’re actually packaged? Are you finding that there are enough truck drivers out there to move the product and respond to this new increased workload?

Andrew:         Again, I haven't really pursued that. I haven't heard anything from our contacts and the meetings that I have that there has been any sort of distribution issues at this point. I don't think we're at that point, and (I don’t think) that much stress is being put on the supply chain. I haven't received or heard any information on that front.

Michelle:       Citrus is, of course, harvested by hand. Can you talk specifically about what precautions are in place to keep people safe during this pandemic?

Andrew:         Yeah, we're a critical industry. We've been deemed a critical industry from the federal government on down, and, of course, our state ag commissioner, Nikki Fried, has determined us to be a critical industry, as well as our governor, Ron DeSantis. We have people going to work. We were under strict food-safety guidelines prior to this virus and this pandemic hitting, so there are very stringent state and federal food-safety guidelines: hairnets, gloves, sanitation. Those sorts of things are already very much in place in our industry. Each individual packing house or processor are taking their precautions, whether it's social distancing, requiring washing of hands, even above and beyond what the regulations require. Some employers are using masks, employees wearing masks. We're used to the food safety and hygiene issues, being a food industry. I think those have actually been amped up in this environment. We're doing all we can to get a healthy, safe product out to consumers right now.

Michelle:       This pandemic has just been a terrible thing for everybody. At this time, it's hard to talk about opportunity, but right now, really, in the citrus world, this is a tremendous rebound. For at least a decade, citrus growers have battled citrus greening. That's a disease, of course, that's killing the world's orange trees, and growers really struggled financially over the last several years. What does this new uptick in sales mean to growers? Is it a rebound of sorts?

Andrew:         It's big. I mean, it's mixed emotions, of course. We aren't looking to capitalize on a crisis situation. But certainly, with the consumption numbers falling over the last, really, decade and a half, I can't tell you anything other than it is good news. We are encouraged that people still see orange juice as a healthy drink, that's clear, and a source of vitamin C. It's mixed emotions. It's big, yup. HLB, or citrus greening, has ravaged our groves. Our production has fallen from 240 million boxes 15 years ago to about 70 million boxes of oranges. Those are 90-pound sealed boxes. You can see the production. Now, not all of that is due to greening. We've experienced hurricanes, of course, real estate pressure, other diseases, but a big part of it is because of greening. The fact that we've shown, year over year, increases in this first four-week period is encouraging. But again, it's mixed emotions because it is on the back of this pandemic.

Michelle:       How do you see the future of citrus going forward? The next five years, for example: Will this habit of people going after vitamin C continue after this pandemic is over?

Andrew:         I think it will. I think it's let the cat out of the bag. I think our marketers will take advantage of it. I think that we're going to be here to stay on a consumption side, and we'll rally. We've got optimistic growers out there. Our acreage isn't the same, our production isn't the same, but the men and women who remain in the industry are in it for the long run. We don't have gentlemen farmers or hobbyists or people who aren't doing this as a full-time job. We've got the best and the brightest growers. They're well-schooled in economics and science and meteorology. It's really — you have to be a jack of all trades now to be a citrus grower.

                        We're cautiously optimistic. We think that we've learned — through nutritional programs, through new rootstocks, through different production techniques and encouraging root health and the proper irrigation pH in our irrigation water — that we can produce quality oranges and grapefruit and tangerines, even with this immense disease pressure from greening. So, we're cautiously optimistic. If you're not cautiously optimistic, you probably shouldn't be in agriculture, because it is a difficult profession.

Michelle:       Outside of the citrus industry, what are you seeing where you're located? How are other crop farmers faring during this crisis? Tomato growers, for example, watermelons — what are you seeing and hearing as you talk with so many others around your state?

Andrew:         Yeah, everybody is challenged. They are also out there and experiencing support because of the health benefits of fresh winter vegetables. Our winter harvest for those commodities is pretty much over. That comes and winds down in March and the end of March. As far as the direct effect, we're winding down those harvests of those crops. But again, there are trade issues out there. We want to be protected. Our winter fruit and vegetables want to be protected in any new trade deals with Mexico. They're a huge competitor. That's weighing heavy on the minds. The U.S. Trade Representative recently canceled some public hearings that were going to take place in the next week where we were going to, as an agriculture industry — not just citrus — weigh in and make sure that there are protections over dumping and unfair trade practices and that sort of thing. So, we'll be looking to have that rescheduled when the curve gets flattened on this pandemic.

                        Issues like trade are still (going to be) weighing heavily when this all gets cleared up. As they always do, we'll get back to business, but it's, again, a way of life, and it’s agriculture, and there are always issues. Thank goodness organizations like Florida Citrus Mutual and the Florida Fruit and Vegetable Association and the Florida Farm Bureau are out there advocating for growth.

Michelle:       It's a challenging time, learning to navigate this strange new world that we live in. But in such a time, do you feel that the general public is perceiving agriculture in a new way, a better way — perhaps (feeling) even more grateful to growers, to farmers around the world?

Andrew:         I absolutely do. I think that people are more and more concerned with where their food is grown. They understand and are becoming more educated that it doesn't originate in the grocery store. I think, especially here in Florida, where there's high population growth, that green space is coveted, and agriculture is seen as green space, wildlife habitat, water recharge. I think people have come around in the last 10 years to 15 years and appreciate agriculture that much more and understand the good work that farmers do.

Michelle:       Andrew Meadows from Citrus Mutual in Florida, thank you so much for joining us today.

Andrew:         Great. Thank you very much for your time.

Michelle:       For additional resources on COVID-19, visit Alltech.com.

Click here for additional COVID-19 resources.

With worldwide consumer demand for chemical residual-free fruits and vegetables on the rise, it is more important now than ever for producers to use natural solutions to produce more food of a better quality. Nicolas Body, Alltech Crop Science European technical manager, details Alltech’s global trials on industrial crops and how natural solutions, such as biostimulants, have increased the genetic potential of plants.

The following is an edited transcript of Kara Keeton’s interview with Nicolas Body. Click below to hear the full audio.

Kara:              Nicolas Body, Alltech Crop Science’s European technical manager, is here today to talk about the “Alltech effect” and results from the field. Thank you for joining me today, Nicolas.

Nicolas:          Thanks for inviting me.

Kara:              Alltech has trials set up around the world for crop science research. Why is it so important to have active trials globally?

Nicolas:          This is connected to the way Alltech operates. We look at today's farming problems and we try to find innovative, natural solutions. The trials are the best way to integrate this innovation into the farmers' practices, day in and day out, and to showcase how it can impact their bottom line at the end — the profitability of the farm.

Kara:              Which is, of course, a priority for every farmer and every agricultural business. In regards to research trials, I know that Alltech has had trials in Europe and California to look at the complex fungal disease attacking wood. What have been the initial results of those trials?

Nicolas:          This trial is very exciting because we are totally changing the approach on esca, the wood disease you are referring to. We focus on the plant health and not the pathogen. That's not the way farmers have been doing it in the past. Our results have shown that we can have grapevines that are fighting back the pathogen by themselves. They are stopping the development of the disease and the spread of the disease, and they are still producing healthy grapes. We have the same approach for citrus greening, for example. That would be well-known in the states, especially in Florida, where we're using the same technologies to help the plant fight back on that issue.

Kara:              So, the approach is to take preventative measures instead of reactive measures to these diseases in this research, right?

Nicolas:          Yes, exactly. We discovered through our nutrigenomic research that we can elicit the natural defense of the plant, and inducing that resistance allows for the plant to not be totally under the pressure of the disease and to stay healthy, even if the disease is present in the field.

Kara:              That's a wonderful approach. Consumers worldwide are demanding residual-free vegetables and fruit products. I understand recent trials have explored ways to better meet this consumer demand.

Nicolas:          On this subject, it is clear that the consumer is driving the changes. We do trials here to show to the farmers that we have solutions for them to meet that consumer demand. For example, the producers that are already engaged in reduction of their chemical residues found at harvest, on the fruits and vegetables, down to zero residues, which is the norm for baby food, for example. Our natural alternatives are of great value. In these trials, we want to show that it's working already and that the farmers can feel confident using them on their farms. And with the help of other tools to assess what are the different issues, they can get the best of all the different tools they have in their toolbox.

Kara:              Again, this is another tool to help our farmers and agribusinesses improve their bottom line, which is what they're looking for, as well as providing a healthy product to consumers.

Nicolas:          I think the new step here is not only the bottom line; it's also the possibility for the farmer to engage with the consumer on these practices — the fact he is using natural technologies, the fact that he is avoiding chemical residues. If he is using one molecule, that's because there is one specific problem and he has no choice. I think these natural options are a good way to increase the transparency and educate the consumer, at the end.

Kara:              What exactly are biostimulants, and what benefit can they provide to industrial crop farmers?

Nicolas:          The global definition of biostimulant that has been accepted is — they are defined as products from natural origins that are stimulating the plant growth, but with a mode of action that differs from a fertilizer. They would be to the plant what coffee is to me. It allows me to perform, but it's not bringing any nutritional value. I cannot live on coffee. The two together — a good fertilizer program and a biostimulant product, used at exactly the right time — allow for the plant to be at its best genetic potential, and that's where we get the best fruits, a good uniformity among the different fruits or vegetables, and a better quality of them, as well.

                        On industrial crops, like tomatoes and potatoes, where we are positioning our biostimulant with a lot of success, we are increasing the quality characteristics of these crops. We will see better uniformity — more, bigger tubers on the potatoes for French fries, for example. We'll have more sugar and better color on tomatoes. We would see more oil out of olives, using a biostimulant at the right time.

Kara:              There are many technologies out there that Alltech is researching in the crop science field. How are these advancements changing the future of farming around the world?

Nicolas:          Biotechnology, the way Alltech is doing it — based on natural solutions derived from microbial solutions — is clearly helping us produce more nutritious food for a growing planet while being less dependent on chemical solutions, so we are changing the world to be more natural and produce more food of a better quality. I think that's what everyone wants globally.

Kara:              Consumers are definitely concerned about where their food comes from, and they're concerned that it would be raised naturally. Are there exciting research projects out there that would build upon what Alltech is currently doing, and maybe interesting research for the future in this field?

Nicolas:          We are on many exciting projects. One subject I think that's worth knowing from the consumer standpoint, but also from all the producers, is what I call the Brown Revolution — the focus we have on soil health and how we can foster all the beneficial microbes that are in our soil in order to get the best out of our fields. That's an area where we, I would say, focus 50% of our research today in order to discover how the microbes are working in the soil and how using these microbes and all the molecules they produce in the soil, is impacting the plant growth and, at the end, the yield of the product. Taking care of the soil is very important for future generations, and we don’t want to be producing more food while we are depleting our soil and not be able to do that in the long run.

Kara:              The Alltech Crop Science research team is taking care of the soil, looking at ways to produce healthier crops around the world, and we thank you for taking time today to talk with us about the research and everything that Alltech is doing in crop science.

Nicolas:          Thanks a lot.

Kara:              That was Nicolas Body, Alltech Crop Science European technical manager.

Want to learn more about natural solutions for your crop production?

The building blocks of plant health and yield don’t start at the ground level; they actually begin underground, in the very material that ends up becoming soil. All healthy soils have three essential components: optimal nutrient availability; good biodiversity; and a balanced structure, with higher levels of organic content.

Plentiful and available nutrients

Healthy soils have a plentiful supply of minerals and other essential nutrients, as well as a balanced pH, making them readily available for uptake by the plant and offsetting mineral depletion by returning minerals to the soil though fertilization and decomposition. Factors like temperature and pH can greatly vary and reduce nutrient availability. In highly acidic soils, for example, phosphorus and calcium availability is poor, while nutrients like iron and copper are less available in soils with high alkaline levels. 

Maintaining biodiversity and building a strong biome

High-performing soils have a vibrant population of insects, worms and microbes. A strong microbiome is a miniature environment that harbors little to no pathogens and, instead, is rich in beneficial organisms that promote root and plant growth. Certain crop practices — such as heavy tilling, depending on soil needs — can have a harmful effect on soil biodiversity, resulting in the loss of these organisms and their myriad benefits and potentially allowing pathogens to get a foothold. 

Balanced soil profile

Balanced, silty soils with high organic content combine good aeration with excellent nutrient and water retention, requiring fewer costly inputs. Sandy soils may be well-aerated but can find it more difficult to retain water or nutrients. Clay soils, on the other hand, may be able to store more water and nutrients but are poorly aerated. Generally, a low organic content means that the soil is, overall, less fertile.

Healthy soils are beneficial to growers and lead to more efficiently grown crops. During the growing season, plants are susceptible to disease pressure and encounter various environmental stressors, such as heat, frost and drought — all of which could reduce plant potential and yield. Healthy soils, however, can minimize the effects of these stresses and mitigate potential stress-induced losses. These well-balanced soils are rich in organic matter and can provide much of the nutrition the plant needs, limiting inputs and their associated costs while increasing sustainability and profitability for the grower. 

Healthy soils are more environmentally sustainable, and they also represent a valuable revenue-generating asset — not only for current growers, but also for their successors. 

If your soil isn’t meeting this criteria for optimization, learn more about improving your soil health at www.alltech.com/crop-science.

I want to learn more about improving my crops and soil health.

The following is an edited transcript of Nicole Erwin's interview with Dr. David Magana. Click below to hear the full audio:

Nicole:           They’re among the biggest issues facing fruit and vegetable production in the 21^st century — how are the most innovative producers tackling challenges like disease and consumer demand? We have those questions and more for Dr. David Magaña, vice president and senior analyst with the Rabobank RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness Group. Thank you for joining us, Dr. Magaña.

David:             Thank you for having me.

Nicole:           The good news for fruit and vegetable producers is that the rise in global income — and the growing middle class in developing countries — is leading to increased produce consumption. However, you have identified a complex convergence of challenges with sustaining year-round growing demand. Can you elaborate on those challenges?

David:             Yes. As many people know, one of the main challenges for the global food system is to feed the world — which has a growing population. By 2050, we're going to be above nine billion people. What’s more important is that the global middle class is growing; recent projections by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show that, by 2030, more than five billion people are going to be classified as middle-class. That has an even bigger impact on the food system, as food perception and food purchases are to be modified not only by increasing population, but also by increasing price. We are faced with a challenge to be a better fit in the world. We also need to take care of the largest resources, such as water. People are asked to allocate perhaps less water to agriculture in some regions. They also want producers to deliver perfect quality in food but, at the same time, use less chemicals and less pesticides.

                        They want us to have perfect quality year-round. At the same time, they want more local product, and that is difficult to offer in some regions. We need trade to diversify the growing regions and to have year-round supplies. They want convenient products, but they want also less packaging, less garbage and less plastic in the oceans. They want to keep prices reasonable in the face of increasing labor costs and increasing regulations. That is one of the main challenges for the food system: to have more to offer the world but, at the same time, meet all these expectations.

Nicole:           There’s this really interesting, ironic twist going on here; that rising middle class in the developing world would seem like a great thing — and it is — but at the same time, it's applying pressure to the ability to meet rising demand.

David:             Yes, it is. We see this increase in [the] middle class particularly in Asia. By 2030, it’s projected that the two-thirds of the global middle class will live in the Asia-Pacific region. An interesting number is that, every year, more than 100 million people leave poverty to become middle-class. That will have a huge impact on food choices and on food perception. They normally demand inexpensive carbohydrates, but they're shifting to more animal protein, dairy and fresh products and even more organic products and functional foods.

Nicole:           People like you understand this, but do you think that the world grasps this change, that's coming fairly quickly?

David:             Well, that's a challenge because, as people increasingly live in more urban settings, many people don't understand where food is coming from. That is also a challenge — just to educate older people to know where that food is coming from and what that represents for the environment, for example.

Nicole:           Dr. Magaña, you have quite a bit of experience in understanding agricultural market integration under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). What does your past research in fresh fruit, vegetable markets and food security tell you about how the global markets respond to free trade?

David:             When we have free trade, we are allowed to better face the year-round demand. For example, in the U.S., a few decades ago, we could only consume fresh strawberries or avocados a few weeks out of the year or, perhaps, only during the summer months. But now, given this advance in trade and logistics, we have year-round supplies because we can rely on supplies from Mexico, for example.

As a matter of fact, Mexico has become the biggest exporter of fresh vegetables in the world. The main market is obviously the U.S. So, trade is an important trend in fresh fruits and vegetables, and proximity is key, since we are dealing with perishable products.

Nicole:           What could be the consequences to agriculture of the U.S. pulling out of NAFTA?

David:             Well, that's an interesting question. We just released a piece of research in the RaboResearch group that addresses that question. NAFTA has been in place for the last 24 years, and they have been trying to reach a new agreement for the last eight months. Just remember that one of the objectives of renegotiating NAFTA was to have a more equilibrated trade between the U.S. and, especially, with Mexico. If the U.S. will settle NAFTA, we could see fewer imports from Mexico, especially in durable goods. That decrease in the level of trade would have a significant economic impact in the Mexican economy. Our macroeconomic research team expects that, if the U.S. pulls out of NAFTA, the Mexican peso could depreciate up to 20 percent.

Nicole:           Wow.

David:             With that depreciation rate, the U.S. would be charging a Most Favored Nation tariff — or MFN — that is quite low for fruits and vegetables. The U.S. market for fresh fruits and vegetables relies heavily on supplies from Mexico. The U.S. has a low MFN — just one digit.

                        Just to give an example, avocados are about 4 percent the MFN tariff that the U.S. would be imposing if NAFTA is no longer in place. For strawberries and blackberries, the tariff is close to zero. Tomatoes and peppers, cucumbers, are around 5 percent. So, we could see that the expected Mexican peso depreciation could more than compensate for that MFN tariff. In that scenario, we could actually see higher U.S. imports of fresh produce from Mexico.

                        On the other hand, U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada would be facing a double hurdle: one is the stronger dollar, since a Canadian dollar depreciation is also expected, and two, Mexican MFNs are quite high. Mexican charges to countries without a free trade agreement would be two digits. For example, for apples and pears, the MFN is 20 percent; for potatoes, up to 75 percent.

                        In the case of a NAFTA breakup, we could see an increased level of U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada — and a decreased level of exports, which would lead to even more imbalanced trade. This is kind of counterintuitive, due to the currency depreciation. Contrary to what many people expect under this scenario, we could see that big winners of this could be U.S. consumers of fresh fruits and vegetables and, also, packers and shippers that rely heavily on supplies from Mexico. Among the losers would be U.S. producers that compete seasonally with Mexico and Canada, as well as packers and shippers that rely solely on domestic supplies.

Nicole:           Jobs could be lost.

David:             Probably.

Nicole:           The U.S. has had a history of ups and downs in immigration and labor. We won’t go into the political issues, but is technology stepping in to alleviate this challenge in some ways? We hear a lot about robotics on the farm, that kind of thing.

David:             That is an increasingly challenging aspect of production, especially in the produce subsector, since they’re more labor-intensive than other crops — corn or soy beans, for example. As some players in the industry say they have made some progress in mechanizing harvesting, others say that there is still a long way to go. When we meet with our clients in Mexico, they say that one of the biggest constraints they have is with labor. If that happens in Mexico, imagine what that means in the U.S. Remember that Mexico is still a developing country. As more opportunities arise, we will see less labor availability.

                        The growth rate of the population of Mexico is expected to decrease in the next few years. For example, a few decades ago, families [there] had six or eight children; now, they have just two, similar to families in the U.S. So, we certainly expect that labor is going to continue to be an important constraint for the produce sector, and mechanization is a necessity.

Nicole:           Regarding per-capita consumption, data shows that Americans are eating more fresh produce in the fresh-cut sector of the produce industry — now the fastest-growing segment. It's not unusual to hear of outbreaks of food-borne illness associated with the consumption of fresh produce. As this market continues to grow, our processors face increased challenges of meeting demand for variety and volume while also holding to the expectation that their produce is safe to consume.

David:             Yes. That's an important challenge. One way to solve this issue is to diversify the growing regions. For example, the recent outbreak in romaine lettuce in Yuma, Arizona, had a significant impact on the consumer perception of [the] food safety of fresh products. Another important factor is where that lettuce is produced. For example, this outbreak occurred when Yuma production was already in the final stage and production was moved to the coast — to the Salinas and Watsonville area. One way to meet the challenge is to diversify the growing regions and communicate the information of where the food was produced. Also, we obviously need to have better control and make improvements in technical aspects as well as food safety.

Nicole:           It becomes a communications issue, as you mentioned. In the case of, for example, Panera Bread Company, they had to make sure their consumers understood that the romaine lettuce in their Caesar salads, for example, came from Salinas.

David:             Yes.

Nicole:           That was a big communications undertaking. I don't know how successful it was, because I imagine a lot of people just said, “Okay, I'm going to have a different kind of salad right now.” What are the most innovative producers out there doing to tackle these kinds of challenges?

David:             Well, one way to do this is to continually improve barriers that they are using and also improve all kinds of technical aspects to make sure that we have proper food security.

Nicole:           Dr. David Magaña, vice president and senior analyst with Rabobank RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness Group. Thank you so much for joining us.

David:             Thank you for the opportunity.

I would like to learn more about improving sustainability and efficiency in my crop production!

Alltech now collects data from 144 countries and nearly 30,000 feed mills to compile its annual Alltech Global Feed Survey. This data collection is a major undertaking, made possible only through Alltech’s global reach.

However, the real work (and fun!) begins when all the data is received, and we have the opportunity to dig deep for insights and trends. We seek to answer the following questions:

Which countries are growing the fastest? Which species saw declines in production? Are any major players slowing down? What are the surprises?

The data presents seemingly endless opportunities for comparison, and we’ve decided to share 18 of the facts we’ve found most interesting from our 2018 data. Perhaps this will serve as “food” for your next dinner conversation!

1. The top eight countries produce 55% of the world’s feed production.
2. Vietnam saw an increase of nearly 1 million metric tons of aquaculture feed, contributing to the estimated 6% growth of the Asia-Pacific region’s aquaculture feed production in 2018.
3. Morocco saw the largest growth of any country in Africa thanks to the addition of two new feed mills as well as an extension to an existing feed mill late last year.
4. Although not typically known for its pig production, India took a big leap in pig feed production in 2018. Why? The industry is trending toward more organized farming in areas like Kerala and Punjab, with new feed millers contributing to this growth.
5. Where’s the beef? Feed production for beef was stagnant this year. Not only that, but the third-largest producing region, Asia-Pacific, dropped enough to let Latin America step up and take the bronze.
6. Southeast Asia’s feed production represents over 20% of the Asia-Pacific region’s feed production. Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand carry most of the weight and contribute to 93% of Southeast Asia’s feed production.
7. Showing 7% growth last year and 13% this year, India is clearly growing its feed production at a rapid clip, not just in one, but in all species! From aquafeed to goat grains, India’s feed production increased across all 13 categories we assess.
8. The European Union (EU) countries contribute to more than 50% of all major species feed production in Europe (with the exception of aquafeed).
9. Norway is Europe’s largest producer of aquafeed, contributing 45% of the region’s total aquafeed production.
10. Layer feed grew by 4% globally, indicating a growing need and continued interest in this efficient protein source.
11. After years battling African swine fever, Estonia is back in the game, showing a more than three-fold increase in pig feed production over last year.
12. Eighty percent of European turkey feed production occurs in the EU.
13. Higher costs of corn and soy reduced Brazil’s broiler feed production by 2%, eating away at the entire region’s total and making Latin America the only region to see a decrease in broiler feed production in 2018.
14. Dairy showed growth in all regions, indicating the ongoing affinity for this protein source.
15. Africa’s feed production grew the most of any region at 5%. Expected to have one of the fastest-growing populations, how will this region farm in the future? Will it embrace conventional farming or leapfrog other methods and embrace Agriculture 4.0?
16. Turkey feed saw a big leap in Spain with an additional 300,000 tons of feed estimated in 2018.
17. Pet feed reassessed: It turns out Europe is not the primary producer as originally thought! North America leads by about 200,000 tons of feed, making it a close race. With a renewed focus on value rather than volume in the pet food sector, who will lead in 2019 and beyond?
18. Insect protein is working its way into aquaculture feed production. It’s possible Alltech will include this new alternative feed source in future surveys!
19. The North American regions continues its steady course of 2% growth; the biggest contributors to this increase were beef and broiler each at 3%.

These quick facts are just a few of the insights we can derive from the Alltech Global Feed Survey. To discover more from the 2019 Alltech Global Feed Survey, including the results booklet, an interactive global map with information from each country and a presentation of the results, visit alltechfeedsurvey.com. 

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The agricultural sector in Portugal was, until recently, still highly traditional, with few technological advances implemented. This has changed over the last few years, however, with the adoption of and investment in new technologies across a variety of areas, including irrigation, soil mobilization, pest and disease control and fertilization.

One of the most significant changes dealt with the types of crops being grown by these Portuguese farmers, who began to look beyond Portugal and focus on cultivating products that could be more competitive on a European scale, including fruits and vegetables. Their farming practices have also been progressively updated to make sure that they fit in with European regulations. A greater emphasis has been placed on sustainable practices with decreased residues to ensure that the crops are marketable in areas beyond Portugal.

These updated farming practices have led to an increase in productivity and competitiveness, as well as a more efficient use of resources. Over the past 20 years, 3.2 million acres — almost a third of the agricultural area under cultivation in Portugal — had been neglected, but now, there is a greater productivity of the cultivated area and a new entrepreneurial spirit driven by a new generation of farmers.   

A generation of farmers that was raised on a family farm is also becoming more prevalent, and with this influx of fresh eyes also comes the implementation of crop diversification. A farm where, previously, only corn was cultivated, for instance, may now also grow tomatoes, sunflowers, carrots and other crops.    

Rejuvenating the agricultural fabric of Portugal was imperative, since more than half of farmers in the country are older than 65. With the embrace of new technologies to meet market demands, Portuguese agriculture today is more innovative, professional, productive and customer-oriented. 

In 2015, Portugal ranked 41^st for exports in the global agri-food industry. The main products the country exported included olive oils, tomatoes and wines. Portugal’s agricultural exports go to 153 countries, with Spain, Brazil, France, Italy and Angola as its biggest external markets. Fresh fruit accounted for 40 percent of the value of those exports, with special emphasis on small fruits, oranges and Rocha pears, which were the best performers in 2016. 

However, the country is also heavily dependent on cereals and oilseeds, whose import volume accounted for 42.4 percent of the total agricultural imports during 2006–2010. While Portugal is not yet seen as competitive in dryland cereal farming, the national production of irrigated grain — particularly maize — has been on the rise.

The sector must continue to strengthen its exports and its presence in foreign markets, affirming the quality that sets its produce apart. Portuguese agricultural products are attractive to countries and customers looking for products from southern Europe, thanks to the mild and differentiated climate that the Atlantic Ocean provides. Portugal has a reputation for food safety and is recognized as a region whose products feature appealing colors, flavors and aromas.   

To learn more about international agronomic practices and how you can implement updated technology in your operation, visit www.alltech.com/cropscience and sign up for our Top Crop newsletter today. 

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As temperatures get warmer, our thoughts quickly turn to spending time outside, walking barefoot on the grass and enjoying lazy days on lawn chairs, sipping lemonade. Those daydreams are always colored by perfectly green grass.

How can you bring those dreams of a lush lawn to life this year? We have four tips for invigorating your lawnscape, many of them taken directly from a page in agriculture’s book.

It all starts underground

Farmers know the importance of soil testing to ensure that the soil and plants are getting the right nutrients to help their crops. While this practice is not widespread in the home lawn area, running a soil test in early spring can be a great tool to create a strong basis for a healthier lawn. Knowing what type of soil is in your lawn will guide you to plant a type of grass that is hearty for your geographical location, alert you to possible watering concerns due to your soil type and notify you what nutrients may be lacking in your soil.   

You should also aerate your soil to allow for oxygen to circulate around roots and break up any compaction. The type of soil in your lawn will dictate how often you should aerate.  Clay soils should be aerated at least once a year because they are prone to compaction.  Sandier soils can be aerated less often. 

Nutrition, inside and out

Once you know what kind of nutrients should be supplemented and have planted the appropriate turf mix for your lawn, you can choose what kind of fertilizer to apply. A good place to start is usually an NPK fertilizer, which is made up of nitrogen to encourage growth, phosphorus to aid in expanding the root system and potassium for plant vigor, like Alltech Crop Science’s amino acid-based Nature’s Basics®. By providing the soil and grass with essential nutrients that improve organic matter, stimulate growth and promote a healthier, more balanced plant, a home user can experience results similar to what growers around the world see in their crops. 

Trimming the verge

To maintain grass health and decrease competition from weeds, the rule of thumb is to not mow more than one-third the length of your grass blade. Cutting the grass too short can weaken the root system and leave the grass more susceptible to stress from drought and increased temperatures. Shorter grass also exposes areas in the ground where seeds can easily take root and thrive. Taller grass, on the other hand, will have a deeper, more developed root system with wider and thicker blades that help shade the soil and minimize water evaporation during times of high temperature. 

Dressing for the weather

In the late fall, it’s time to prepare your lawn for falling temperatures and provide a good starting point for the following spring. Apply a top dressing, spreading it in a thin layer over your lawn and working some of the material into your aeration holes. This will help encourage the decomposition of thatch and help keep the area from drying out due to winter weather.

These four simple steps can go a long way in transforming your lawn from simply average to a lush landscape that you can enjoy long after the fireflies have gone for the year. 

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Consumers have certain expectations of how a tomato should look and taste when it reaches their table. Producers know all too well, however, the variables inherent in farming that are at odds with standardization of the final product.

During the growth cycle, the flower setting and fruit standardization stages are essential to meet the desired aspects of color, size and flavor. These periods, which determine productivity and fruit classification, can be a challenge for producers since the plants are constantly subjected to stressors, such as adverse environmental conditions, which can compromise crop development.

An ally in crop development: Hormonal precursors

According to agronomist Marcos Revoredo, technical manager for Alltech Crop Science in Brazil who specializes in intensive crops, hormonal precursors may be an ally in minimizing the physiological stress on the plants.

“By applying these precursors as a substitute to a pre-mixed combination of hormones, it is possible to stimulate the plant to produce its own hormonal balance in the precise quantities needed to meet the plant’s demands at that exact moment,” he explains.

In response to this natural hormonal balance, “the plant will have a better redistribution of nutrients to flowers and fruits, increasing production. It also allows for more balanced plant growth and, in the following stages of fruit development, increases standardization of size,” says Revoredo.

Profitability through uniformity

In Araguari, Minas Gerais, Brazil, producer Edson Trebeschi emphasizes the importance of care in the standardization of the size of the tomatoes.

“If you have a fruit that is higher in quality and uniform in size, it results in greater profitability down the road,” says Trebeschi.

For this reason, Trebeschi has been increasing his implementation of more sustainable production practices, working preventively to improve plant resistance.

Additional considerations for top tomato crops

Revoredo also notes that besides the use of natural solutions based on hormonal precursors, such as plant extracts, minerals and amino acids that promote the reduction of the effects of stressors and improve the vigor of the plants, important factors in reaching good results in tomato crops include soil preparation, disease and pest management, adequate irrigation and nutritional maintenance.

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